Author: Bilal Kathrada

Space, the Final Frontier? India has made headlines for something other than the situation in Kashmir: the failure of its first planned moon landing. The ambitious Chandrayaan-2 project, which was supposed to land a rover on the moon, went south early Saturday morning when the Indian Space Research Organisation, or Isro, lost contact with the moon lander, named Vikram, two kilometres above the lunar site, minutes before touchdown was expected. What was supposed to be a momentous day in the history of India, a day when the country would become the fourth nation in the world, after the US, Russia and China, to successfully land on the moon, quickly turned into a major disappointment. Cheers of joy turned to tears at the launch control centre in Bangalore as Vikram suddenly disappeared off the communications channels. Vikram, do you copy? Hours later, despite every attempt by the ground crew, there was still no connection to the lander. Isro did not release any official word on whether signals disappeared because of a problem on the lander or because it crashed on to the surface of the moon. Later reports stated that the lander was spotted on the surface of the moon, and it was in one piece. Either way, it is not likely that Vikram will ever be recovered. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who was present at the launch control during the mission, left shortly after contact was lost. In an address to the nation later that morning, he indicated that the mission had failed. If everything went according to plan, the lander would have launched a solar-powered rover which was expected to work for one lunar day, the equivalent of 14 Earth days. Its mission was to look for signs of water and “a fossil record of the early solar system”. “What most people don’t realise is that the primary aim of the mission, which is to find water on the moon is still ongoing because of the powerful range of sensors and equipment carried by the orbiter,” Former chairman of Isro A S Kiran Kumar It is believed that there are relatively large deposits of frozen water at the moon’s South Pole, which is where the Vikram lander was headed. If the rover proved the theories to be true, then that would have been a giant step towards setting up a moon base, and a possible stepping stone to future Mars missions. For India, the Chandrayaan-2 mission bore additional significance: besides the fact that national pride was at stake, there is also the fact that Modi has vowed to send a manned mission into orbit by 2022, and the success of Chandrayaan-2 would have given impetus to that mission. The question is, now what? Humans. We have a Problem . . .  The cost of the mission was 10 billion Indian Rupees (R2.11billion), a fraction of the $25billion price tag of the Apollo mission. Despite the relatively small budget, the mission did raise questions about how funds are allocated when the country is still battling hunger and poverty. Some were critical of the Indian government, saying that the millions allocated to the launch would have been better spent in more pressing avenues. To me, it is not a matter of the money spent, but the return on investment, particularly for a country like India. It is simple business: if the returns, whether tangible or not, are greater than the money put in, then it is an investment; otherwise, it is money down the drain. Having said that, how do you measure the returns on something like a moon landing? Space travel is extremely expensive, and just like in the case of Chandrayaan-2 and Israel’s Beresheet mission in April 2019, things can go very wrong. This is a question that has me perplexed. Clearly, there are no immediate tangible returns; there is no money to be made, no precious materials that we know of on the moon that we might exploit. Which begs the question: what is to be gained? National pride? International status? If these are the only outcomes, then space travel is definitely not a worthwhile investment. For those who say that space exploration and research are justification enough, I agree we cannot put a price on those. But does India’s current economic situation allow that much spending on research? Perhaps there is a more sinister objective. Earlier this year, in a show of military strength, India shot down one of its own moving satellites, proving it had the capability to do so with any satellite belonging to any country. India is now one of only four countries in the world capable of doing so. This comes despite India previously condemning the idea of an arms race in outer space. This “weaponisation” of space flight technology has drawn criticism from many quarters. Besides, according to Nasa the debris created by the destroyed satellite “ends up being there for a long time. If we wreck space, we’re not getting it back”. Satish Dua, the former chief of integrated defence staff of the Indian army, defended India’s actions, stating that “India has to be fully equipped for war – whether it is subsurface, surface, air or space warfare”. Is this it, then? Is the space race little more than war mongering?

On September 9, 1947, computer scientist Grace Hopper reported the world’s first computer bug. A bug is a flaw or glitch in a system. Thomas Edison reported “bugs” in his designs as early as the 1800s, but Hopper was the first to identify one in a computer. In Hopper’s case, it was literally a bug. Her coworkers at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, found that their computer was delivering consistent errors. When they opened the computer’s hardware, they found . . . a moth! The trapped insect had disrupted the electronics of the computer.  Grace Hopper, recorded the story in her log book: “It was over in another building, and the windows had no screens on them and we were working on it at night, of course, and all the bugs in the world came in. And one night she (Mark II) conked out and we went to look for the bug and found an actual large moth, about four inches in wing span, in one of the relays beaten to death, and we took it out and put it in the log book and pasted Scotch tape over it.” According to Hopper, from then on, when anything went wrong with a computer, they said it had bugs in it. The term “bug” had been used by engineers to describe flaws in machines as far back as Thomas Edison, but Hopper popularized “bug” and “debug” as early computer-programmer language. She was an originator of electronic computer automatic programming and a computer pioneer while working for the Navy, where she was a Rear Admiral. As a lecturer, she often told the story of the computer bug.

Did you know that half of today’s jobs will become obsolete in the next 15 years? According to Kai-fu Lee, one of China’s leading artificial intelligence experts, nearly 50% of all jobs today will be automated by 2034. As technology becomes more advanced, and hence more capable, many jobs that were traditionally performed by humans are being taken up by machines. Just a few years ago, self-driving vehicles were pure science fiction. Today, thanks to massive advancements in technology, there is a global movement to make autonomous vehicles a norm on our roads. Similarly, advancements in artificial intelligence have given computers the ability to converse in such perfectly natural way that becoming increasingly difficult to tell if you are talking to a person or a machine. Just these two advancements will be directly responsible for the death of at least a dozen careers within the next five years, among them taxi drivers, truck drivers, chauffeurs, secretaries, receptionists, call centre agents and personal assistants.   As technology continues on its relentless path, we will see more profession disappearing. While this trend may be alarming, it is nothing new. We are living in a time of rapid technology advancement, with new technologies constantly replacing old ones; and when this happens, people working with the old tech have to move on. Many of us may not realize it, but this has been a recurring pattern for at least half a century. Technology killed the Video Star? Just a few years ago we had VCR’s, audio cassette players, CD players and DVD players for watching movies and listening to audio tracks. These technologies were truly revolutionary, and completely transformed the movie and music industries in their times. Because of their usefulness, these media became ubiquitous. Millions of people all over the world used them, and they spawned entire industries which employed hundreds of thousands of people. There were people who designed them, manufactured them, sold them and repaired them. Then there were factories that manufactured the cassettes, CD’s or DVD’s that ran on these devices which themselves employed tens of thousands of people. Not to mention the dozens of downstream industries like recording studios where original content was written onto the various media for distribution. The video rental industry, which employed countless people in thousands of video rental stores, was also a victim of this revolution, with names like Blockbuster being relegated to history books and internet memes. All things considered, it will not be an exaggeration to say that these technologies provided jobs to millions of people. The trouble is, they disappeared almost overnight. When was the last time you watched a movie on a VCR, a CD or even a DVD? When last did you even see one of these items? We know what happened to these technologies: they were replaced by memory sticks, external hard disks and, more recently, streaming media. The question is, when these technologies went obsolete, what happened to the millions of people who worked in industries related to them? Was it all doom and gloom? Strangely, we did not see tens of thousands of people become unemployed. Most likely, they moved onto other professions. As some technologies became obsolete, others replaced them and people simply got into those. New technologies always created new opportunities. The result is the emergence of new fields and new careers that did not exist previously. In fact, the top-10 in-demand jobs today did not exist 10 years ago. When we speak of the “iPhone” today, almost everyone in the world knows what it is. Yet, 12 years ago, if you said the “iPhone” to someone, they’d think you were trying to sayin “I phone…[someone]” and their question would be, “You phone who?” Similarly, terms like “cloud computing”, “computing for green”, “advanced analytics”, and “android” did not exist a few years ago. Similarly, because it has become such a big part of our lives, most people don’t realise that Wi-Fi technology was barely standardised 10 years ago. Yet, today dozens of people are working in those fields, which are still expanding and require more skilled people. The trouble, it seems, is not a lack of work, more likely but a lack of skilled people. AI may be the Future, but it can’t do everything Moreover, according to Lee, AI may be the future, but it can’t do everything; and certain professions are safe from the fourth industrial revolution, like those that involve empathy or human-to-human interaction. Professions like therapists, nurses, teachers or doctors will always remain with humans. Lee further states that innovative and creative professions are also safe because AI generally struggles with those. This will not only include art, graphics and design in its various forms, but also engineering and scientific research. These insights from one of the world’s leading AI experts are a much needed dose of optimism, particularly at a time when there is wide-spread apprehension about machines stealing jobs. It is a clear message that there is no basis for the concern. Lee does warn that education will need to adapt to prepare younger generations for the new landscape.  

This is the fight of our lives . . . Marvel’s Avengers: Endgame movie has made history in more ways than most people realise. By its second weekend, only 11 days after its launch, it had surpassed the $2 billion (R28bn) mark in ticket sales, and it’s on track to becoming the highest-grossing movie of all time, a position held by Avatar for nearly 10 years. Avengers: Endgame is the culmination of a series of 22 movies over the past 11 years, collectively known as the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU), all depicting characters from Marvel’s successful comic books. Never before has there been such a successful cinematic universe comprising so many characters in a multitude of independent-yet-related movies. The real genius is how so many independent movies, all with their own plots and themes, were meshed together into a single overarching story-line. The MCU is a testament to brilliant screenwriting. It was no easy task to write stories true to the comic books, both engaging and entertaining, while at the same time fitting well into the larger storyline of the other movies. “Marvel Studios has depicted the Marvel superheroes so beautifully that the whole world loves them” Stan Lee The writers had to be careful to ensure that they avoided major plot holes between the movies as well as discrepancies in the time lines, which stretched from World War II to five years into the future. Great screenwriting, coupled with wonderful movie-making complete with A-grade actors, mind-blowing computer graphics and over-the-top action scenes, produced some of the most successful movies of all time. The Marvel Cinematic Universe garnered a global fan base of millions, a large portion of whom had never read a single Marvel comic in their lives, yet became loyal fans of the likes of , Iron Man, Thor and the Hulk. The Marvel formula worked like a charm, and the movies went on to gross a whopping $22 billion in global ticket sales, not to mention merchandise and other revenue. The phenomenal success of the Marvel movies actually had a somewhat unexpected side-effect: they staunched a major technology trend that was threatening to put the movie industry out of business. Since 2002, cinema ticket sales have been gradually dropping, with 2017 marking a three-year low with the lowest sales since 1995. Things were bad and getting worse. Enter fast growing streaming services Many people cited streaming services as the main threat to the industry, which was largely correct. Ever since services like Netflix launched, not just the movie industry but also television stations have been losing market share. It is not hard to see why. Services like Netflix provide a completely customised user experience. You can watch what you want, when you want it. No longer do you have to schedule your life around someone else’s programming. This type of service has clicked particularly well with the younger generations, who have no defined boundaries as far as work and leisure time go. Everything is fluid, and they pretty much define what they do, and when and where they do it. These “digital natives”, as they are referred to, are most creative and productive that way. To expect them to sit around waiting for their favourite television shows to start is simply out of the question. They would rather miss out than wait. This is where streaming services like Netflix and YouTube scored, because they allow complete flexibility. Not only that, but they allow viewing on pretty much any device: computers, tablet PCs and even cellphones. It’s no wonder streaming services like Netflix, Amazon Prime and Hulu are growing at an incredible rate, with more services from Disney and Apple on the horizon. This was not good news for the movie industry. “Wakanda Forever” Then, in 2018, Marvel released Black Panther, which made $1.2bn globally and almost single-handedly reversed the fortunes of the industry. Ticket sales numbers went up 4.2%, and overall revenue from the sales went up 6.8%. This was despite the fact that ticket prices were the highest ever, at $9.14 a ticket. Suddenly things were looking up. Black Panther was followed by a series of remarkably good movies from the MCU, which ensured people kept coming back to the theatres, and kept spending their money. Marvel also used a rather clever trick to keep people coming back: the end credit scenes. These scenes, which appeared in the credits after the end of the movies, were a stroke of genius. They were usually full of cameos from characters in other Marvel movies, but also teased of events in future movies. They were essentially trailers for future movies. These became a fan favourite, and lengthy discussions ensued about what they meant and what was in store in the future. Marvel and Disney made a fortune on the cinematic universe they created, and in their success is an inspiring lesson: at the worst of times, when not just your company but your entire industry is in danger of going out of business thanks to new trends and new technologies, it is possible to change the tides. All you need to do is to focus on creating great-quality products. “Part of the Journey is the End” ~ Tony Stark

Is it a plane? Is it a UFO? No, it’s SpaceX! Elon Musk has done it again. Just when we think the South African-born entrepreneur has no more cards up his sleeve, he amazes the world once again with a new and mind-blowingly amazing concept. Musk’s company, SpaceX, has just received the go-ahead from the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) in the US to launch a fleet of internet-providing satellites into orbit. The satellites, which will orbit at a height of around 550km above the Earth’s surface, will form part of a global mesh called Starlink, which will encompass the earth and provide high-speed internet to areas around the globe directly from the sky. Starlink is Born Development of the Starlink concept began in 2015, and two test satellites have already been launched. The company aims to launch a second set of test units in late 2019, followed by the first fully-operational commercial fleet comprising of 1600 satellites by 2020. The aim of the project is to ultimately launch a constellation of 12000 satellites into orbit by the mid-2020s. The total cost of the project will be around $10 billion (R144.68bn). Devices on the ground, like phones and computers, will connect to the Starlink network via a special modem designed to communicate with the satellites, which SpaceX say will cost under $200. The Starlink satellites will be equipped with thrusters which will enable them to move out of the way if they detect a possible collision with another satellite or space debris. This was added in response to concerns raised by companies like Kepler Communications, that the large number of Starlink satellites will endanger their own. Connecting the data dots The Starlink concept was originally proposed by Musk to address the global demand for low-cost, fast internet. If it succeeds, the concept will completely transform global communications by making internet access available to the masses, especially in under served areas and countries where the infrastructure is poor. The long-term impact of cheap and reliable internet access cannot be over-emphasised. Here in South Africa, for example, one of the major obstacles to economic growth is the poor infrastructure and high cost of data. For example, my internet-based business, which is headquartered in a Durban suburb, is a street away from a fibre line but is unable to get fibre internet. The best we can get is a 4megabit per second line which, if we are lucky, gives us 25% of that speed on a good day. Additionally, there are regular outages, making work impossible. Today, everything relies on a good internet connection, and small and large businesses alike are doing more business online than ever before. From email and other modes of communication to online marketing and ecommerce, businesses cannot do without a fast, reliable internet connection. Additionally, voice calls are now increasingly being done via apps like WhatsApp and Facetime, both of which use data rather than a voice line.   Schools and other educational institutes have also become more reliant on fast internet, thanks to the convenience of e-learning, which enables people who do not have access to a school, university or other institute, to learn from the comfort of their homes and places of work. The entertainment industry has also created a surge in demand for fast internet due to streaming services like Netflix, Apple Music and Spotify. Yet, internet in South Africa remains slow, unreliable and expensive. Starlink could be the ideal solution not just for South Africans, but for people all over the world who struggle with poor internet and high prices. And since the Starlink concept does not require any ground-based communications towers and telephone lines, people in the remotest areas, completely cut off from national telecoms grids, will also be able to access the internet. It will be a true revolution. One of the long-term effects of Starlink will be that ground-based telephone lines and cellphone towers will eventually become a thing of the past. All telecommunications will take place in the sky. Although it will provide a number of benefits, Starlink does pose some serious concerns. For example, the economic down side to the Starlink concept is that many telecoms service providers will likely go out of business, resulting in massive job losses. It is not difficult to see millions of consumers opting in for a service that is fast, cheap and reliable, provided it keeps its promise. In such a case, the masses will definitely opt in for the service, and if it further proves to be a viable solution for businesses, then that will undoubtedly be the death-knell for telecoms companies. Of course, there are also concerns around SpaceX having a monopoly on global communications. There really is no answer to that at this stage, since there currently aren’t any worthy competitors. Although Amazon has expressed an intent to launch its own network of global internet satellites, it has not come up with anything tangible as yet. At any rate, it is going to be a serious challenge for Amazon or anyone else to compete with SpaceX because, after all, these guys own the rockets.

Guns ‘n Games Which country has the most gamers in the world? Most people might say it’s the US – but that’s incorrect. According to a recent Vox.com article Japan is the country with the most gamers, followed by South Korea. The US comes third. In the aftermath of the recent shootings in El Paso, Texas, and Dayton, Ohio, in the US a lot of attention has been drawn to video games, which have been named by various American politicians as the primary cause of mass shootings in that country. Even Donald Trump chimed in, saying: “We must stop the glorification of violence in our society. “This includes the gruesome and grisly video games now commonplace. “It’s too easy today for troubled youth to surround themselves with a culture that celebrates violence. We must stop or substantially reduce this and it has to begin immediately.” Walmart also went after video games, probably due to political pressure. Because the El Paso shooting happened at a Walmart store, the company sent a memo to all stores to temporarily pull down any signage or displays that advertise violent video games. The irony of this is that Walmart is one of the biggest firearm retailers in the US, but nothing is mentioned of that in their memo. The big question is: is there any truth to the claims that video games lead to mass shootings, or are video games a convenient scapegoat for people avoiding the real cause? Although it’s not my intention to defend video games, nor to comment on US politics, as a father of three enthusiastic gamers, my only concern is, will my children be adversely affected by the games they innocently play? If the evidence proves video games are indeed responsible for violent, homicidal behaviour, then without a doubt serious action needs to be taken. If, however, video games are not the culprit but a political scapegoat, then I think it will be a highly irresponsible on the part of American leadership to place the blame where it does not belong. This will prove dangerously counterproductive: it will neither solve the problem nor prevent future occurrences, putting many more innocent lives at stake. Coming back to the question: are violent video games responsible for mass shootings? If video games lead to violent tendencies, which in turn lead to mass shootings, then based on the fact that there are more gamers in Japan and South Korea than in the US, it goes to reason that those countries should have a similar problem with mass shootings. Yet mass shootings are unheard of in those countries and gun-related violence is among the lowest. According to studies by the American Psychological Association, there is a link between playing violent games and aggressive behaviour. Gamers, especially younger ones, tend to demonstrate more-than-normal aggression levels after playing violent video games. However, this aggression is temporary, and has never been shown to lead to violence or homicidal behaviour. Christopher J Ferguson, professor of psychology at Stetson University in Florida, says: “As a researcher who has studied violent video games for 15 years, I can state that there’s no evidence to support these claims that violent media and real-world violence are connected.” “But what about all those killers? Why do we keep hearing they play video games? That’s because the demographics of shooters usually lines up with the demographics of video gamers: Young and male” Steve Kovach If video games are not the cause of the mass shootings in the US, then what is? No one really knows what goes on in the twisted mind of a mass shooter, and what causes him to go on a murderous rampage, but there are certain indicators. In the case of the El Paso, Dayton, and Christchurch, New Zealand, shooters, for example, we know that their motivations were purely racial; they were all white supremacists with a deep hatred for people of colour. Some claim that these people might have been inspired by unabashed racially-charged rhetoric from right-wing politicians. Of course, we cannot ignore the strong correlation between the availability of guns and violent crimes, as shown by a number of studies. In the US, it is easy to buy a gun; the laws are lax, and you can get one at your local Walmart. For this reason, the US has the rather undesirable accolade of having by far the most guns in the world. In fact, in the US there are more guns than people. Whereas this is not in itself a probable cause, statistics have shown that where gun laws are lax, there are high rates of gun violence; and where the laws are tight, there are fewer incidents of gun-related crimes. Are video games responsible for violent behaviour? I cannot say for sure. “Just because young males tend to play video games and also tend to be the ones who commit mass shootings, doesn’t mean the two are linked. It’s like saying all shooters wear sneakers, therefore sneakers cause gun violence” Steve Kovach But although there isn’t sufficient evidence to link games to violent behaviour, there is overwhelming evidence that at least two other factors are linked to mass shootings – guns and racial hatred.

“South Africa says it is pushing ahead to grasp the many opportunities presented by the fourth industrial revolution” Dear Mr President It was with great excitement and enthusiasm that I learnt about your decision to set up a presidential commission on the fourth industrial revolution. I believe it is a positive step in the right direction for our country, even though many people say it is too late. I agree that it is a bit late in the game, and many opportunities have been missed, but I also believe that there are still countless other opportunities out there, waiting to be tapped. That is the beauty of technology: it always brings unexpected opportunities. All it takes is an innovative and entrepreneurial mind to unearth them. And I think we have plenty of those in South Africa. “As we have seen in the past 25 years there have been moments of rapture, regression, disconnect, and lull, and I think the youth has been very important in operating in those spaces,” Mosa Phadi, a researcher at the Public Affairs Research Institute SA’s unemployment rate is one of the highest in the World. The trouble is, there is still rampant youth unemployment and severe poverty in our country, despite the tremendous opportunities that technology provides. The reason is that most of our great minds have not yet been tapped and many of our future great innovators and tech entrepreneurs have not yet realised their true potential. There are literally tens of thousands of South Africans who are still digitally illiterate, despite finishing matric. I was shocked recently when a colleague at a tertiary institute mentioned to me that some of his staff were not even able to prepare a CV on a computer because they lacked basic computer skills. Similarly, at a talk I did recently to a group of about 40 young people, all of whom were between the ages of 18 and 25, and studying at tertiary institutes, no one really knew what the term “fourth industrial revolution” actually meant, much less the impact it is going to have on their future lives and careers. I was truly shocked. In direct contrast to this, I had the opportunity to visit Istanbul in Turkey recently and was fortunate to be invited to visit a number of schools. I was completely bowled over at one high school where a group of students were building their own electric car. Yes, sir, they were literally building it from the ground up. Another group of students at the same school were building a drone from scrap materials like plastic bottles. The parts they could not find in the rubbish, they 3D printed using a printer they built themselves. It was a surreal experience. The chemistry students at the school developed a mosquito repellant which won an international award. The school is now bottling the chemical and selling it to countries in Africa. All this, I experienced in just one high school and I was both inspired and envious. I wanted so badly to bring that level of science and technology to our schools back home. I wished every child here had opportunities like that. When you look at some of the most well-known tech entrepreneurs, you will notice they all started very young: Bill Gates was exposed to coding from the tender age of 12, while Mark Zuckerberg’s father taught him coding from 6. The late Steve Jobs mentions in his autobiography that his first inspiration for working with technology came from a visit to the Xerox Palo Alto Research Centre when he was just a child. This is a recurring pattern in the tech world: most of the brightest innovators and entrepreneurs started very young, and this is what South Africa needs. Where to from here?  As such, I think the key focus area of the presidential commission should be to tap South Africa’s brilliant young minds by giving them exposure to technologies like coding, robotics and artificial intelligence from a primary school level. I understand plans are in place to start teaching coding in schools, but I think this should be done sooner rather than later. Not only that, but I also feel we should provide our kids with entrepreneurship skills so that they will be able to translate their tech innovations into viable businesses. I met a number of young people who had amazing tech skills, and created great products, but were unable to get those products to market because they lacked the requisite skills. Focusing on the long term, I believe, will be far more fruitful than trying to play catchup. I see you have brought together some of the country’s most brilliant minds to serve on the commission, and I firmly believe that such a high-powered team will undoubtedly be able to formulate an effective long-term strategy. After all, we have everything going for us: brilliant and eager young minds, a robust technology infrastructure, and a visionary leader.